Add to CartThere are a growing number of important industry shifts going on vis-à-vis computing architecture and processing. At least three things are happening at the same time:
1) Most growth in computing is in the mobile space (Apple iPhones, Laptops, Netbooks, etc.)
2) Visual or 3D computing is becoming a mainstream feature and not just for games and Second Life
3) Sophisticated computing effects from the gaming space are starting to show up as standard features in consumer and business software. These tap into the spare power available in the GPU.
Each one of these has an important range of implications, but the most critical is that the action is no longer in the large CPU market thanks to mobile computing. Intel (INTC) understands this given their recent success with the Atom processor. However, Intel has not been able to adequately address the needs for graphics processing. This has opened the door for Nvidia who has responded with a broad array of new products that vendors like Apple have embraced.
We will discuss the competitive environment in more detail below, but at a high level we think Intel has their hands full. The company’s next wave of technology, known as Larrabee, is impressive on paper, but will be late to the party and positioned more at the high end of the market. AMD has strong technology and capability thanks to the acquisition of ATI, but their ability to execute is questionable. (Recent speculation on a potential bankruptcy is not helping their market position either.)
Nvidia’s stock has had a rough time of it lately and some serious manufacturing problems added to their troubles. The company has enjoyed a fairly consistently high return on capital in the past and have $1.3B in cash ($2.40/share). We have been conservative with our intrinsic value model which suggests a fair value on the shares of $15.